Premier League title race: City are back at the Etihad Stadium for a clash with Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa.

For much of this season it appeared somewhat inevitable that Manchester City would retain the Premier League title. At one point, their lead over Liverpool was at 14 points.

However, City dropped points here and there and Liverpool went on an impressive streak, taking all three points in 14 of their last 16 league games. And that made for a title race down the stretch.

Man City currently have a four-point edge with one week remaining, while also adding to their goal difference should the two teams finished tied atop the standings (+72 vs. +65). That gives Pep Guardiola’s defending champions additional breathing room for the stretch run.

Time is running out for Liverpool, who need Man City to drop points in its final match for a shot at overtaking them. Below is the complete picture of the run-in for both clubs, and an explanation of the scenario should they finish the season even on points at the top of the table, which is still a possibility. 

With a game in hand, FiveThirtyEight  gives Man City an 86 percent chance of retaining its title, while Liverpool are projected at only 14 percent to win it. The table snapshot below is updated as of matches on Sunday, May 15.

Manchester City run-in

  • Total matches remaining: 1
  • Home matches: 1 — vs. AVL
  • Away matches: 0

Between a 3-2 home loss to Tottenham on Feb. 19 and a 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace on March 14, Man City dropped enough points in recent months to give a Liverpool side the chance to get back in the race.

But Man City took advantage of Liverpool’s home draw against Tottenham by registering an 5-0 win over Newcastle on May 8, followed by a 5-1 road win at Wolves three days later.

The Citizens then were held by West Ham in a 2-2 draw, in which Riyad Mahrez missed a penalty to win it late. Still, the point means that City still control their own destiny, and a win at home on the final day would clinch the title.